IMAX Corporation logo IMAX - IMAX Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $49.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $41.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $49.57
UPSIDE: 14.27%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 8.0% above fair value
Current Price $43.38
Bear Case $28.82 33.6% downside ($28.82 - $43.38) / $43.38 = -33.6% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $40.16 7.4% downside ($40.16 - $43.38) / $43.38 = -7.4% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $51.36 18.4% upside ($51.36 - $43.38) / $43.38 = 18.4% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 25.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 12.3% vs our 10.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $49.57 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.16 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 77% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $49.57 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions