IIPR - Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$84.67
DETAILS
HIGH:
$150.00
LOW:
$44.00
MEDIAN:
$60.00
CONSENSUS:
$84.67
UPSIDE:
48.39%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
28.6x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($6.55) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
8.7x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $84.67 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $173.63 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 13.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $84.67 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 131% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify