Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. logo IIPR - Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $84.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $150.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $60.00
CONSENSUS: $84.67
UPSIDE: 48.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 67.1% below fair value
Current Price $57.06
Bear Case $143.89 152.2% upside ($143.89 - $57.06) / $57.06 = 152.2% $6.55 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $173.63 204.3% upside ($173.63 - $57.06) / $57.06 = 204.3% $6.55 FFO × 29x
Bull Case $203.38 256.4% upside ($203.38 - $57.06) / $57.06 = 256.4% $6.55 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

28.6x
6.55$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($6.55) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $84.67 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $173.63 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 13.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $84.67 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 131% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify