Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. logo IIPR - Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $56.25
LOW: $56.25
MEDIAN: $56.25
CONSENSUS: $56.25
UPSIDE: 7.37%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 70.5% below fair value
Current Price $52.39
Bear Case $146.45 179.5% upside ($146.45 - $52.39) / $52.39 = 179.5% $6.84 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $177.42 238.6% upside ($177.42 - $52.39) / $52.39 = 238.6% $6.84 FFO × 29x
Bull Case $208.39 297.8% upside ($208.39 - $52.39) / $52.39 = 297.8% $6.84 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

28.6x
6.84$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($6.84) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 7.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $6.84 FFO/share with a 29x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $177.42 per share. Dividend yield: 14.5%. DDM cross-check: $135.13.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $56.25
Analyst Range $56.25 – $56.25
Divergence from AlphaVal 215%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 14.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $56.25 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 215% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify