Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. logo IIPR - Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $84.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $150.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $60.00
CONSENSUS: $84.67
UPSIDE: 49.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 69.5% below fair value
Current Price $56.72
Bear Case $152.13 168.2% upside ($152.13 - $56.72) / $56.72 = 168.2% $6.50 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $185.93 227.8% upside ($185.93 - $56.72) / $56.72 = 227.8% $6.50 FFO × 29x
Bull Case $219.74 287.4% upside ($219.74 - $56.72) / $56.72 = 287.4% $6.50 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

28.6x
6.5$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($6.50) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $6.50 FFO/share with a 29x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $185.93 per share. Dividend yield: 13.4%. DDM cross-check: $162.56.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $84.67
Analyst Range $44.00 – $150.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 120%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 13.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $84.67 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 120% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify