Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. logo IIPR - Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $84.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $150.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $60.00
CONSENSUS: $84.67
UPSIDE: 31.33%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 61.1% below fair value
Current Price $64.47
Bear Case $135.56 110.3% upside ($135.56 - $64.47) / $64.47 = 110.3% $6.50 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $165.68 157.0% upside ($165.68 - $64.47) / $64.47 = 157.0% $6.50 FFO × 29x
Bull Case $195.81 203.7% upside ($195.81 - $64.47) / $64.47 = 203.7% $6.50 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

28.6x
6.5$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($6.50) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 9.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $84.67 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $165.68 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 11.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $84.67 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 120% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify