i3 Verticals, Inc. logo IIIV - i3 Verticals, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 11
HOLD 2
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $30.00
CONSENSUS: $28.00
UPSIDE: 40.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.5% above fair value
Current Price $19.99
Bear Case $16.45 17.7% downside ($16.45 - $19.99) / $19.99 = -17.7% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $19.69 1.5% downside ($19.69 - $19.99) / $19.99 = -1.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $22.65 13.3% upside ($22.65 - $19.99) / $19.99 = 13.3% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 21.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.69 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 103% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions