i3 Verticals, Inc. logo IIIV - i3 Verticals, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 10
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $28.00
CONSENSUS: $26.00
UPSIDE: 56.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.6% below fair value
Current Price $16.62
Bear Case $14.85 10.7% downside ($14.85 - $16.62) / $16.62 = -10.7% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $17.80 7.1% upside ($17.80 - $16.62) / $16.62 = 7.1% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $20.49 23.3% upside ($20.49 - $16.62) / $16.62 = 23.3% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 16.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 6.2% vs our 7.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $17.80 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $26.00
Analyst Range $20.00 – $30.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 32%

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 103% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions