Insteel Industries, Inc. logo IIIN - Insteel Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 27.0% below fair value
Current Price $30.51
Bear Case $34.84 14.2% upside ($34.84 - $30.51) / $30.51 = 14.2% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $41.78 37.0% upside ($41.78 - $30.51) / $30.51 = 37.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $48.00 57.3% upside ($48.00 - $30.51) / $30.51 = 57.3% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 11.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 2.0% vs our 6.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $41.78 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions