IFNNY - Infineon Technologies AG
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$43.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$43.50
LOW:
$43.50
MEDIAN:
$43.50
CONSENSUS:
$43.50
DOWNSIDE:
19.92%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80% confidence
Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
1.12$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.12)
Implied Market Multiple
48.4x
Plain-Language Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.12 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $17.96 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 10.6x.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$43.50
Analyst Range
$43.50 – $43.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
59%
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Price-to-book value of 10.6x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $43.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1204 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing