Infineon Technologies AG logo IFNNF - Infineon Technologies AG

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 3
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STRONG
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 227.6% above fair value
Current Price $65.30
Bear Case $13.83 78.8% downside ($13.83 - $65.30) / $65.30 = -78.8% $1.53 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $19.93 69.5% downside ($19.93 - $65.30) / $65.30 = -69.5% $1.53 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $26.03 60.1% downside ($26.03 - $65.30) / $65.30 = -60.1% $1.53 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.53$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.53)

Implied Market Multiple 42.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.53 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $19.93 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 12.6x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 12.6x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1382 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing