International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. logo IFF - International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $88.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $75.00
MEDIAN: $90.00
CONSENSUS: $88.38
UPSIDE: 13.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 137.1% above fair value
Current Price $78.20
Bear Case $23.65 69.8% downside ($23.65 - $78.20) / $78.20 = -69.8% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $32.98 57.8% downside ($32.98 - $78.20) / $78.20 = -57.8% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $44.16 43.5% downside ($44.16 - $78.20) / $78.20 = -43.5% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

4.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (4% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 43.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 19.2% vs our 4.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $88.38 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.98 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $88.38 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions