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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 14
HOLD 15
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $243.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $257.00
LOW: $214.00
MEDIAN: $250.00
CONSENSUS: $243.57
UPSIDE: 16.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 41.6% above fair value
Current Price $208.78
Bear Case $117.98 43.5% downside ($117.98 - $208.78) / $208.78 = -43.5% $7.70 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $147.47 29.4% downside ($147.47 - $208.78) / $208.78 = -29.4% $7.70 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $176.96 15.2% downside ($176.96 - $208.78) / $208.78 = -15.2% $7.70 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
7.7$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $243.57 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $147.47 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $243.57 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples