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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 14
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $254.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $280.00
LOW: $214.00
MEDIAN: $259.00
CONSENSUS: $254.38
UPSIDE: 13.69%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 132.7% above fair value
Current Price $223.74
Bear Case $76.92 65.6% downside ($76.92 - $223.74) / $223.74 = -65.6% $6.41 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $96.15 57.0% downside ($96.15 - $223.74) / $223.74 = -57.0% $6.41 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $115.38 48.4% downside ($115.38 - $223.74) / $223.74 = -48.4% $6.41 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.41$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 34.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.41, the base-case value is $96.15 per share. DDM cross-check: $93.81.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $254.38
Analyst Range $214.00 – $280.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 62%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $254.38 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples