IES Holdings, Inc. logo IESC - IES Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $458.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $458.00
LOW: $458.00
MEDIAN: $458.00
CONSENSUS: $458.00
UPSIDE: 107.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.0% below fair value
Current Price $220.75
Bear Case $124.79 43.5% downside ($124.79 - $220.75) / $220.75 = -43.5% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $234.82 6.4% upside ($234.82 - $220.75) / $220.75 = 6.4% 22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $377.72 71.1% upside ($377.72 - $220.75) / $220.75 = 71.1% 28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.7%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 41.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 20.9% vs our 21.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $234.82 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions