IES Holdings, Inc. logo IESC - IES Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $458.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $458.00
LOW: $458.00
MEDIAN: $458.00
CONSENSUS: $458.00
UPSIDE: 41.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 35.9% above fair value
Current Price $322.57
Bear Case $126.14 60.9% downside ($126.14 - $322.57) / $322.57 = -60.9% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $237.37 26.4% downside ($237.37 - $322.57) / $322.57 = -26.4% 22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $381.81 18.4% upside ($381.81 - $322.57) / $322.57 = 18.4% 28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.7%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 60.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 25.9% vs our 21.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $237.37 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions