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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.4% below fair value
Current Price $62.38
Bear Case $54.46 12.7% downside ($54.46 - $62.38) / $62.38 = -12.7% $3.03 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $68.08 9.1% upside ($68.08 - $62.38) / $62.38 = 9.1% $3.03 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $81.69 31.0% upside ($81.69 - $62.38) / $62.38 = 31.0% $3.03 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
3.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.03, the base-case value is $68.08 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples