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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 27.2% above fair value
Current Price $82.16
Bear Case $51.65 37.1% downside ($51.65 - $82.16) / $82.16 = -37.1% $3.46 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $64.57 21.4% downside ($64.57 - $82.16) / $82.16 = -21.4% $3.46 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $77.48 5.7% downside ($77.48 - $82.16) / $82.16 = -5.7% $3.46 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.7x
3.46$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.46, the base-case value is $64.57 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples