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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.9% above fair value
Current Price $68.99
Bear Case $54.18 21.5% downside ($54.18 - $68.99) / $68.99 = -21.5% $3.01 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $67.72 1.8% downside ($67.72 - $68.99) / $68.99 = -1.8% $3.01 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $81.27 17.8% upside ($81.27 - $68.99) / $68.99 = 17.8% $3.01 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
3.01$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.01, the base-case value is $67.72 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples