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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.8% below fair value
Current Price $61.40
Bear Case $54.46 11.3% downside ($54.46 - $61.40) / $61.40 = -11.3% $3.03 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $68.08 10.9% upside ($68.08 - $61.40) / $61.40 = 10.9% $3.03 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $81.69 33.0% upside ($81.69 - $61.40) / $61.40 = 33.0% $3.03 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
3.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.03, the base-case value is $68.08 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples