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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 22.3% below fair value
Current Price $52.90
Bear Case $54.46 2.9% upside ($54.46 - $52.90) / $52.90 = 2.9% $3.03 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $68.07 28.7% upside ($68.07 - $52.90) / $52.90 = 28.7% $3.03 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $81.69 54.4% upside ($81.69 - $52.90) / $52.90 = 54.4% $3.03 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
3.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.03, the base-case value is $68.07 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples