ICU Medical, Inc. logo ICUI - ICU Medical, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 8
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $163.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $164.00
LOW: $163.00
MEDIAN: $163.50
CONSENSUS: $163.50
UPSIDE: 22.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 47.6% above fair value
Current Price $133.31
Bear Case $72.28 45.8% downside ($72.28 - $133.31) / $133.31 = -45.8% $4.02 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $90.35 32.2% downside ($90.35 - $133.31) / $133.31 = -32.2% $4.02 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $108.42 18.7% downside ($108.42 - $133.31) / $133.31 = -18.7% $4.02 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.9x
4.02$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 33.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $163.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.35 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 13573%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $163.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples