ICU Medical, Inc. logo ICUI - ICU Medical, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 10
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $186.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $200.00
LOW: $163.00
MEDIAN: $187.00
CONSENSUS: $186.40
UPSIDE: 18.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 897.1% above fair value
Current Price $157.26
Bear Case $12.62 92.0% downside ($12.62 - $157.26) / $157.26 = -92.0% $0.88 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $15.77 90.0% downside ($15.77 - $157.26) / $157.26 = -90.0% $0.88 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $18.93 88.0% downside ($18.93 - $157.26) / $157.26 = -88.0% $0.88 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.9x
0.88$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 178.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.88, the base-case value is $15.77 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $186.40
Analyst Range $163.00 – $200.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 92%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 2893%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $186.40 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples