ICU Medical, Inc. logo ICUI - ICU Medical, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 9
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $170.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $182.00
LOW: $163.00
MEDIAN: $167.50
CONSENSUS: $170.00
UPSIDE: 5.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 76.2% above fair value
Current Price $161.46
Bear Case $73.32 54.6% downside ($73.32 - $161.46) / $161.46 = -54.6% $4.02 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $91.65 43.2% downside ($91.65 - $161.46) / $161.46 = -43.2% $4.02 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $109.98 31.9% downside ($109.98 - $161.46) / $161.46 = -31.9% $4.02 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.9x
4.02$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 40.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $170.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $91.65 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 13573%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $170.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples