International Container Terminal Services, Inc. logo ICTEF - International Container Terminal Services, Inc.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.8% below fair value
Current Price $13.74
Bear Case $10.36 24.6% downside ($10.36 - $13.74) / $13.74 = -24.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $17.57 27.9% upside ($17.57 - $13.74) / $13.74 = 27.9% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $25.61 86.5% upside ($25.61 - $13.74) / $13.74 = 86.5% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 25.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $17.57 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions