International Container Terminal Services, Inc. logo ICTEF - International Container Terminal Services, Inc.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 39.1% below fair value
Current Price $13.05
Bear Case $12.83 1.7% downside ($12.83 - $13.05) / $13.05 = -1.7% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $21.45 64.3% upside ($21.45 - $13.05) / $13.05 = 64.3% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $31.05 137.9% upside ($31.05 - $13.05) / $13.05 = 137.9% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 20.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.2% vs our 15.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $21.45 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions