ICON Public Limited Company logo ICLR - ICON Public Limited Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 17
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $148.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $222.00
LOW: $100.00
MEDIAN: $125.00
CONSENSUS: $148.89
UPSIDE: 27.50%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 19.2% below fair value
Current Price $116.78
Bear Case $144.54 23.8% upside ($144.54 - $116.78) / $116.78 = 23.8% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $144.54 23.8% upside ($144.54 - $116.78) / $116.78 = 23.8% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $157.04 34.5% upside ($157.04 - $116.78) / $116.78 = 34.5% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 11.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $148.89 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $144.54 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions