Ichor Holdings, Ltd. logo ICHR - Ichor Holdings, Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $96.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $115.00
LOW: $85.00
MEDIAN: $88.00
CONSENSUS: $96.00
UPSIDE: 48.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 96.3% above fair value
Current Price $64.77
Bear Case $22.00 66.0% downside ($22.00 - $64.77) / $64.77 = -66.0% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $33.00 49.1% downside ($33.00 - $64.77) / $64.77 = -49.1% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $44.00 32.1% downside ($44.00 - $64.77) / $64.77 = -32.1% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 28.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $96.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.00 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $96.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case