ICF International, Inc. logo ICFI - ICF International, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 9
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $102.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $115.00
LOW: $90.00
MEDIAN: $102.50
CONSENSUS: $102.50
UPSIDE: 48.70%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.3% above fair value
Current Price $68.93
Bear Case $52.35 24.0% downside ($52.35 - $68.93) / $68.93 = -24.0% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $66.71 3.2% downside ($66.71 - $68.93) / $68.93 = -3.2% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $79.11 14.8% upside ($79.11 - $68.93) / $68.93 = 14.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 17.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $102.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $66.71 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $102.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions