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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.8% below fair value
Current Price $29.53
Bear Case $39.08 32.3% upside ($39.08 - $29.53) / $29.53 = 32.3% ROTCE 11.5% → 3.77x TBV
Fair Value $41.50 40.5% upside ($41.50 - $29.53) / $29.53 = 40.5% ROTCE 15.4% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $41.50 40.5% upside ($41.50 - $29.53) / $29.53 = 40.5% ROTCE 17.7% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.4%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.4%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.85x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.4% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $10.37 tangible book, implying $41.50 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Financial statements were converted from INR into USD using USDINR at 0.0105 USD per INR.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly