Hancock Whitney Corporation logo HWC - Hancock Whitney Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 10
HOLD 10
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $78.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $82.00
LOW: $76.00
MEDIAN: $78.50
CONSENSUS: $78.75
UPSIDE: 16.67%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 22.4% below fair value
Current Price $67.50
Bear Case $60.90 9.8% downside ($60.90 - $67.50) / $67.50 = -9.8% ROTCE 10.5% → 1.15x TBV
Fair Value $87.01 28.9% upside ($87.01 - $67.50) / $67.50 = 28.9% ROTCE 14.0% → 1.76x TBV
Bull Case $113.11 67.6% upside ($113.11 - $67.50) / $67.50 = 67.6% ROTCE 16.1% → 2.13x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.0%
9.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.0%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.58x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $78.75 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $87.01 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly