Hubbell Incorporated logo HUBB - Hubbell Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $551.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $600.00
LOW: $503.00
MEDIAN: $557.50
CONSENSUS: $551.33
UPSIDE: 15.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.0% above fair value
Current Price $478.49
Bear Case $283.78 40.7% downside ($283.78 - $478.49) / $478.49 = -40.7% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $447.18 6.5% downside ($447.18 - $478.49) / $478.49 = -6.5% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $622.76 30.2% upside ($622.76 - $478.49) / $478.49 = 30.2% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 32.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.3% vs our 13.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $551.33 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $447.18 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $551.33 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions