High Templar Tech Limited logo HTT - High Templar Tech Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 5
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 49.7% below fair value
Current Price $3.00
Bear Case $4.18 39.2% upside ($4.18 - $3.00) / $3.00 = 39.2% ROTCE 4.6% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $5.97 98.9% upside ($5.97 - $3.00) / $3.00 = 98.9% ROTCE 6.1% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $7.76 158.6% upside ($7.76 - $3.00) / $3.00 = 158.6% ROTCE 7.0% → 0.43x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

6.1%
11.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (6.1%) vs. cost of equity (11.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.28x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 6.1% vs. 11.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $10.63 tangible book, implying $5.97 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (6.1%) is below the minimum investors require (11.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1479 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly