H World Group Limited logo HTHT - H World Group Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 11
HOLD 5
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $62.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $62.40
LOW: $62.40
MEDIAN: $62.40
CONSENSUS: $62.40
UPSIDE: 39.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 52.5% below fair value
Current Price $44.79
Bear Case $55.85 24.7% upside ($55.85 - $44.79) / $44.79 = 24.7% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $94.21 110.3% upside ($94.21 - $44.79) / $44.79 = 110.3% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $137.48 207.0% upside ($137.48 - $44.79) / $44.79 = 207.0% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 15.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $62.40 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $94.21 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $62.40 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 68% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1474 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions