HTGC - Hercules Capital, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$15.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$15.50
LOW:
$15.50
MEDIAN:
$15.50
CONSENSUS:
$15.50
DOWNSIDE:
3.55%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
15.3%
8.5%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (15.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.36x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 15.3% vs. 8.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.52x on $11.84 tangible book, implying $45.08 per share. DDM cross-check: $26.08.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$15.50
Analyst Range
$15.50 – $15.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
191%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $26.08 (42% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.50 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 191% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly