AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Hercules Capital, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag HTGC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Hercules Capital, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for HTGC is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value HTGC?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from HTGC's most recent reported fundamentals.

HTGC - Hercules Capital, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $17.58 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 58.3% below fair value

Current Price $15.34

Bear Case $25.78 68.1% upside ($25.78 - $15.34) / $15.34 = 68.1% ROTCE 11.5% → 1.66x TBV

Fair Value $36.83 140.1% upside ($36.83 - $15.34) / $15.34 = 140.1% ROTCE 15.3% → 2.50x TBV

Bull Case $47.88 212.2% upside ($47.88 - $15.34) / $15.34 = 212.2% ROTCE 17.6% → 3.01x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

15.3%

Cost of Equity

8.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.58 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.83 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $31.45 (30% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $17.58 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 156% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly