Heritage Commerce Corp logo HTBK - Heritage Commerce Corp

Inactive Ticker HTBK is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $14.50
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $11.50
CONSENSUS: $11.88
DOWNSIDE: 11.67%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 24.3% above fair value
Current Price $13.45
Bear Case $5.91 56.0% downside ($5.91 - $13.45) / $13.45 = -56.0% ROTCE 6.7% → 0.66x TBV
Fair Value $10.82 19.5% downside ($10.82 - $13.45) / $13.45 = -19.5% ROTCE 8.9% → 1.21x TBV
Bull Case $13.77 2.3% upside ($13.77 - $13.45) / $13.45 = 2.3% ROTCE 10.3% → 1.54x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.9%
8.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.54x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.88 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.82 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly