AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Heritage Commerce Corp as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag HTBK as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Heritage Commerce Corp's fair value?

Fair value for HTBK comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value HTBK?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. HTBK was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from HTBK's most recent reported fundamentals.

HTBK - Heritage Commerce Corp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $11.88 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 27.4% above fair value

Current Price $13.45

Bear Case $5.77 57.1% downside ($5.77 - $13.45) / $13.45 = -57.1% ROTCE 6.7% → 0.66x TBV

Fair Value $10.56 21.5% downside ($10.56 - $13.45) / $13.45 = -21.5% ROTCE 8.9% → 1.21x TBV

Bull Case $13.43 0.2% downside ($13.43 - $13.45) / $13.45 = -0.2% ROTCE 10.3% → 1.54x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

8.9%

Cost of Equity

8.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 1.54x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.9% vs. 8.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.21x on $8.71 tangible book, implying $10.56 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $11.88

Analyst Range $10.00 – $14.50

Divergence from AlphaVal 11%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly