Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. logo HST - Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 23
HOLD 18
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $25.53 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $23.00
MEDIAN: $26.12
CONSENSUS: $25.53
UPSIDE: 5.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 51.9% below fair value
Current Price $24.19
Bear Case $41.44 71.3% upside ($41.44 - $24.19) / $24.19 = 71.3% $2.28 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $50.32 108.0% upside ($50.32 - $24.19) / $24.19 = 108.0% $2.28 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $59.20 144.7% upside ($59.20 - $24.19) / $24.19 = 144.7% $2.28 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
2.28$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.28) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 10.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.28 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $50.32 per share. Dividend yield: 6.9%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (43 analysts) $25.53
Analyst Range $23.00 – $27.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 97%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 6.9% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $25.53 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify