HST - Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$25.53
DETAILS
HIGH:
$27.00
LOW:
$23.00
MEDIAN:
$26.12
CONSENSUS:
$25.53
UPSIDE:
5.54%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
22.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.28) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
10.6x
Plain-Language Summary
At $2.28 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $50.32 per share. Dividend yield: 6.9%.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (43 analysts)
$25.53
Analyst Range
$23.00 – $27.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.9% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.53 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify