AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag HRTG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for HRTG comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value HRTG?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. HRTG was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from HRTG's most recent reported fundamentals.

HRTG - Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $36.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 34.6% below fair value

Current Price $34.58

Bear Case $40.31 16.6% upside ($40.31 - $34.58) / $34.58 = 16.6% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.97x TBV

Fair Value $52.91 53.0% upside ($52.91 - $34.58) / $34.58 = 53.0% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.90x TBV

Bull Case $54.24 56.9% upside ($54.24 - $34.58) / $34.58 = 56.9% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

47.6%

Cost of Equity

9.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (47.6%) vs. cost of equity (9.4%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 2.55x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 47.6% vs. 9.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.90x on $13.56 tangible book, implying $52.91 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (9 analysts) $36.50

Analyst Range $31.00 – $42.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 45%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $36.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 45% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly