Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. logo HRMY - Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 9
HOLD 2
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $45.50
CONSENSUS: $43.00
UPSIDE: 42.62%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 76.9% below fair value
Current Price $30.15
Bear Case $91.91 204.9% upside ($91.91 - $30.15) / $30.15 = 204.9% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $130.68 333.4% upside ($130.68 - $30.15) / $30.15 = 333.4% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $171.47 468.7% upside ($171.47 - $30.15) / $30.15 = 468.7% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

12.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 41%
Implied Market Multiple 3.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $130.68 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $43.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 255% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions