AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Herc Holdings Inc. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag HRI as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Herc Holdings Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for HRI comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value HRI?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. HRI was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from HRI's most recent reported fundamentals.

HRI - Herc Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $182.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 6.2% below fair value

Current Price $156.24

Bear Case $133.20 14.7% downside ($133.20 - $156.24) / $156.24 = -14.7% $7.40 × 18x P/E

Fair Value $166.50 6.6% upside ($166.50 - $156.24) / $156.24 = 6.6% $7.40 × 22x P/E

Bull Case $199.80 27.9% upside ($199.80 - $156.24) / $156.24 = 27.9% $7.40 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

22.5x

Adjusted EPS

7.4$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 21.1x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.40, the base-case value is $166.50 per share. DDM cross-check: $88.96.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $182.00

Analyst Range $160.00 – $218.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 9%

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 23025%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

⚠ The company pays out 8750% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $88.96 (below our primary estimate by 47%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples