H&R Block, Inc. logo HRB - H&R Block, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 8
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $46.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $33.00
MEDIAN: $46.50
CONSENSUS: $46.50
UPSIDE: 3.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 48.2% below fair value
Current Price $44.88
Bear Case $69.36 54.5% upside ($69.36 - $44.88) / $44.88 = 54.5% $5.78 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $86.70 93.2% upside ($86.70 - $44.88) / $44.88 = 93.2% $5.78 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $104.04 131.8% upside ($104.04 - $44.88) / $44.88 = 131.8% $5.78 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
5.78$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.78, the base-case value is $86.70 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $46.50
Analyst Range $33.00 – $60.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 86%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $46.50 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 86% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples