H&R Block, Inc. logo HRB - H&R Block, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 8
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $41.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $41.00
CONSENSUS: $41.00
DOWNSIDE: 2.03%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 31.9% below fair value
Current Price $41.85
Bear Case $49.15 17.4% upside ($49.15 - $41.85) / $41.85 = 17.4% $4.55 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $61.43 46.8% upside ($61.43 - $41.85) / $41.85 = 46.8% $4.55 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $73.72 76.1% upside ($73.72 - $41.85) / $41.85 = 76.1% $4.55 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.55$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.43 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $41.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 66% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples