Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated logo HR - Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 21
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $21.50
CONSENSUS: $21.25
UPSIDE: 4.37%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.4% above fair value
Current Price $20.36
Bear Case $15.32 24.8% downside ($15.32 - $20.36) / $20.36 = -24.8% $0.91 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $19.70 3.3% downside ($19.70 - $20.36) / $20.36 = -3.3% $0.91 FFO × 21x
Bull Case $24.07 18.2% upside ($24.07 - $20.36) / $20.36 = 18.2% $0.91 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

21.0x
0.91$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.91) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 22.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.25 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.70 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify