Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated logo HR - Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 21
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.00
UPSIDE: 6.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.7% above fair value
Current Price $20.65
Bear Case $15.49 25.0% downside ($15.49 - $20.65) / $20.65 = -25.0% $0.91 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $19.92 3.5% downside ($19.92 - $20.65) / $20.65 = -3.5% $0.91 FFO × 21x
Bull Case $24.35 17.9% upside ($24.35 - $20.65) / $20.65 = 17.9% $0.91 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

21.0x
0.91$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.91) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 22.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.00 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.92 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify