Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated logo HR - Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 21
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.50
UPSIDE: 18.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.0% above fair value
Current Price $19.04
Bear Case $14.80 22.2% downside ($14.80 - $19.04) / $19.04 = -22.2% $0.91 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $19.03 0.0% upside ($19.03 - $19.04) / $19.04 = -0.0% $0.91 FFO × 21x
Bull Case $23.26 22.2% upside ($23.26 - $19.04) / $19.04 = 22.2% $0.91 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

21.0x
0.91$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.91) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 21.0x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.91 FFO/share with a 21x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $19.03 per share. Dividend yield: 5.0%. DDM cross-check: $17.89.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $22.50
Analyst Range $21.00 – $24.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 15%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.0% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify