Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated logo HR - Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 21
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $21.88
UPSIDE: 25.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.2% below fair value
Current Price $17.48
Bear Case $14.96 14.4% downside ($14.96 - $17.48) / $17.48 = -14.4% $0.92 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $19.24 10.1% upside ($19.24 - $17.48) / $17.48 = 10.1% $0.92 FFO × 21x
Bull Case $23.52 34.5% upside ($23.52 - $17.48) / $17.48 = 34.5% $0.92 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

21.0x
0.92$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.92) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 19.1x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.92 FFO/share with a 21x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $19.24 per share. Dividend yield: 5.5%. DDM cross-check: $17.89.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $21.88
Analyst Range $20.00 – $24.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 5.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify