Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated logo HR - Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 21
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.00
UPSIDE: 3.19%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.0% above fair value
Current Price $21.32
Bear Case $15.49 27.3% downside ($15.49 - $21.32) / $21.32 = -27.3% $0.91 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $19.92 6.6% downside ($19.92 - $21.32) / $21.32 = -6.6% $0.91 FFO × 21x
Bull Case $24.35 14.2% upside ($24.35 - $21.32) / $21.32 = 14.2% $0.91 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

21.0x
0.91$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.91) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 23.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.00 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.92 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify