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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 72.1% below fair value
Current Price $19.47
Bear Case $48.86 151.0% upside ($48.86 - $19.47) / $19.47 = 151.0% ROTCE 6.8% → 0.61x TBV
Fair Value $69.80 258.5% upside ($69.80 - $19.47) / $19.47 = 258.5% ROTCE 9.0% → 1.11x TBV
Bull Case $90.74 366.1% upside ($90.74 - $19.47) / $19.47 = 366.1% ROTCE 10.4% → 1.41x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.0%
8.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.02x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.0% vs. 8.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.11x on $19.13 tangible book, implying $69.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $48.10.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $48.10 (31% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly