Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. logo HPP - Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 13
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.00
LOW: $9.00
MEDIAN: $16.00
CONSENSUS: $15.29
UPSIDE: 48.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 64.5% below fair value
Current Price $10.30
Bear Case $22.54 118.9% upside ($22.54 - $10.30) / $10.30 = 118.9% $2.23 FFO × 13x
Fair Value $29.03 181.8% upside ($29.03 - $10.30) / $10.30 = 181.8% $2.23 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $35.51 244.8% upside ($35.51 - $10.30) / $10.30 = 244.8% $2.23 FFO × 21x

Adjust Assumptions

16.9x
2.23$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.23) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 4.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.23 FFO/share with a 17x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $29.03 per share. Dividend yield: 4.6%. DDM cross-check: $8.85.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $15.29
Analyst Range $9.00 – $17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 90%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $8.85 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $15.29 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 90% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
⚠ This stock is 45% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify