Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. logo HPP - Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 13
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $14.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $18.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $16.50
CONSENSUS: $14.75
UPSIDE: 15.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 56.0% below fair value
Current Price $12.79
Bear Case $22.55 76.3% upside ($22.55 - $12.79) / $12.79 = 76.3% $2.23 FFO × 13x
Fair Value $29.04 127.1% upside ($29.04 - $12.79) / $12.79 = 127.1% $2.23 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $35.53 177.8% upside ($35.53 - $12.79) / $12.79 = 177.8% $2.23 FFO × 21x

Adjust Assumptions

16.9x
2.23$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.23) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 5.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.23 FFO/share with a 17x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $29.04 per share. Dividend yield: 3.7%. DDM cross-check: $8.85.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $14.75
Analyst Range $8.00 – $18.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 97%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $8.85 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.75 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 41% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify