HPP - Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$14.75
DETAILS
HIGH:
$18.00
LOW:
$8.00
MEDIAN:
$16.50
CONSENSUS:
$14.75
UPSIDE:
15.32%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
16.9x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.23) × office P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
5.7x
Plain-Language Summary
At $2.23 FFO/share with a 17x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $29.04 per share. Dividend yield: 3.7%. DDM cross-check: $8.85.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$14.75
Analyst Range
$8.00 – $18.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $8.85 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.75 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 41% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify