Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. logo HPP - Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $16.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $12.00
CONSENSUS: $11.20
DOWNSIDE: 27.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 37.3% below fair value
Current Price $15.41
Bear Case $19.09 23.9% upside ($19.09 - $15.41) / $15.41 = 23.9% $2.23 FFO × 13x
Fair Value $24.58 59.5% upside ($24.58 - $15.41) / $15.41 = 59.5% $2.23 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $30.07 95.2% upside ($30.07 - $15.41) / $15.41 = 95.2% $2.23 FFO × 21x

Adjust Assumptions

16.9x
2.23$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.23) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 6.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.20 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.58 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $8.85 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.20 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 159% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify