Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company logo HPE - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 20
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $69.27 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $62.00
MEDIAN: $69.00
CONSENSUS: $69.27
UPSIDE: 39.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 34.1% above fair value
Current Price $49.56
Bear Case $29.56 40.4% downside ($29.56 - $49.56) / $49.56 = -40.4% $1.54 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $36.95 25.4% downside ($36.95 - $49.56) / $49.56 = -25.4% $1.54 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $44.34 10.5% downside ($44.34 - $49.56) / $49.56 = -10.5% $1.54 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.54$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 32.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.27 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.95 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $11.58 (below our primary estimate by 50%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $69.27 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples