HPE - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$32.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$40.00
LOW:
$28.00
MEDIAN:
$31.00
CONSENSUS:
$32.00
DOWNSIDE:
14.85%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
40% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.54$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.4x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.00 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.77 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $10.30 (below our primary estimate by 55%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples