Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company logo HPE - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 21
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $28.00
MEDIAN: $31.00
CONSENSUS: $32.00
DOWNSIDE: 14.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 45.8% above fair value
Current Price $37.58
Bear Case $20.62 45.1% downside ($20.62 - $37.58) / $37.58 = -45.1% $1.54 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $25.77 31.4% downside ($25.77 - $37.58) / $37.58 = -31.4% $1.54 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $30.92 17.7% downside ($30.92 - $37.58) / $37.58 = -17.7% $1.54 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.54$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.00 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.77 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $10.30 (below our primary estimate by 55%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples