AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Helmerich & Payne, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag HP as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Helmerich & Payne, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for HP is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value HP?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from HP's most recent reported fundamentals.

HP - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $38.14 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 248.5% above fair value

Current Price $39.88

Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $39.88) / $39.88 = -100.0% FCF $82M × 8x

Fair Value $11.44 71.3% downside ($11.44 - $39.88) / $39.88 = -71.3% FCF $117M × 11x

Bull Case $0.47 98.8% downside ($0.47 - $39.88) / $39.88 = -98.8% FCF $152M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 52.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $38.14 from 43 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $11.44 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Debt per share ($20.76) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.

⚠ If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $38.14 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential