Hope Bancorp, Inc. logo HOPE - Hope Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $14.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $14.50
LOW: $14.50
MEDIAN: $14.50
CONSENSUS: $14.50
UPSIDE: 17.12%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.1% below fair value
Current Price $12.38
Bear Case $9.22 25.5% downside ($9.22 - $12.38) / $12.38 = -25.5% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $13.18 6.5% upside ($13.18 - $12.38) / $12.38 = 6.5% ROTCE 3.3% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $17.13 38.4% upside ($17.13 - $12.38) / $12.38 = 38.4% ROTCE 3.8% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

3.3%
8.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (3.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.50 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $13.18 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (3.3%) is below the minimum investors require (8.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly