HNI Corporation logo HNI - HNI Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $65.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $65.00
LOW: $65.00
MEDIAN: $65.00
CONSENSUS: $65.00
UPSIDE: 56.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 34.5% above fair value
Current Price $41.62
Bear Case $27.07 35.0% downside ($27.07 - $41.62) / $41.62 = -35.0% $1.93 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $30.94 25.7% downside ($30.94 - $41.62) / $41.62 = -25.7% $1.93 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $34.81 16.4% downside ($34.81 - $41.62) / $41.62 = -16.4% $1.93 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.93$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.93, the base-case value is $30.94 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.69.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 74%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
⚠ The company pays out 123% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $22.69 (below our primary estimate by 27%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples