AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag HMY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's fair value?

Fair value for HMY is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value HMY?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from HMY's most recent reported fundamentals.

HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Other Commodity Producers 80% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 142.1% above fair value

Current Price $16.76

Bear Case $4.34 74.1% downside ($4.34 - $16.76) / $16.76 = -74.1% FCF −30% × 12x

Fair Value $6.92 58.7% downside ($6.92 - $16.76) / $16.76 = -58.7% Current FCF × 15x

Bull Case $10.21 39.1% downside ($10.21 - $16.76) / $16.76 = -39.1% FCF +30% × 18x

Adjust Assumptions

FCF Price Sensitivity

0.0%

EV/FCF Multiple

15.0x

Key Value Driver

Commodity price outlook and production volume

Implied Market Multiple 40.1x

Plain-Language Summary

At current commodity prices with a 15x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $6.92 per share. Range: $4.34 to $10.21.

Warnings

ℹ Demand trends (construction, electric vehicles, food production) matter more than supply headlines. Focus on who's buying the commodity and why.

⚠ Mines and reserves eventually run out. Standard models undercount this risk — the company must keep finding or buying new resources just to maintain its value.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from ZAR into USD using USDZAR at 0.0612 USD per ZAR.

Key Risks

AISC vs. cash cost distinction: always use AISC for breakeven analysis
Single-asset companies carry significantly higher risk — widen scenario range
Mine permitting takes 10-20 years — growth optionality often priced in optimistically