AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Hillman Solutions Corp. as a Platform & Compounding FCF business and values it using Two-stage FCF DCF, then compares the result to the current market price to flag HLMN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Hillman Solutions Corp.'s fair value?

Fair value for HLMN comes from a Two-stage FCF DCF model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Platform & Compounding FCF classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value HLMN?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. HLMN was classified as Platform & Compounding FCF and is valued using Two-stage FCF DCF, built from HLMN's most recent reported fundamentals.

HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $13.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 507.6% above fair value

Current Price $7.85

Bear Case $0.20 97.5% downside ($0.20 - $7.85) / $7.85 = -97.5% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Fair Value $1.29 83.5% downside ($1.29 - $7.85) / $7.85 = -83.5% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Bull Case $2.31 70.6% downside ($2.31 - $7.85) / $7.85 = -70.6% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

8.0%

Discount Rate (WACC)

12.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%

Implied Market Multiple 36.2x

Market is pricing in (growth) 18.9% vs our 8.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1.29 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $13.00

Analyst Range $13.00 – $13.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 90%

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 35% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $13.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions