AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Hillman Solutions Corp.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag HLMN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Hillman Solutions Corp.'s fair value?

Fair value for HLMN is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value HLMN?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from HLMN's most recent reported fundamentals.

HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $14.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 162.9% above fair value

Current Price $7.36

Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $7.36) / $7.36 = -100.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Fair Value $2.80 62.0% downside ($2.80 - $7.36) / $7.36 = -62.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Bull Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $7.36) / $7.36 = -100.0% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

8.0%

Discount Rate (WACC)

12.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%

Implied Market Multiple 92.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.80 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 35% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions