HIW - Highwoods Properties, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$32.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$35.00
LOW:
$30.00
MEDIAN:
$31.50
CONSENSUS:
$32.00
UPSIDE:
2.60%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
13.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($4.12) × office P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
7.6x
Plain-Language Summary
At $4.12 FFO/share with a 13x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $48.68 per share. Dividend yield: 6.4%. DDM cross-check: $37.27.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$32.00
Analyst Range
$30.00 – $35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
52%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 52% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify