Highwoods Properties, Inc. logo HIW - Highwoods Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $29.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $28.00
CONSENSUS: $27.33
UPSIDE: 6.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 40.8% below fair value
Current Price $25.65
Bear Case $34.15 33.1% upside ($34.15 - $25.65) / $25.65 = 33.1% $4.12 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $43.35 69.0% upside ($43.35 - $25.65) / $25.65 = 69.0% $4.12 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $52.56 104.9% upside ($52.56 - $25.65) / $25.65 = 104.9% $4.12 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
4.12$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.12) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 6.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.33 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.35 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 7.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.33 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 78% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify