Highwoods Properties, Inc. logo HIW - Highwoods Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $31.50
CONSENSUS: $32.00
UPSIDE: 2.60%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 35.9% below fair value
Current Price $31.19
Bear Case $38.35 23.0% upside ($38.35 - $31.19) / $31.19 = 23.0% $4.12 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $48.68 56.1% upside ($48.68 - $31.19) / $31.19 = 56.1% $4.12 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $59.02 89.2% upside ($59.02 - $31.19) / $31.19 = 89.2% $4.12 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
4.12$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.12) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 7.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $4.12 FFO/share with a 13x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $48.68 per share. Dividend yield: 6.4%. DDM cross-check: $37.27.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (22 analysts) $32.00
Analyst Range $30.00 – $35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 52%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 52% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify