HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. logo HIVE - HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $6.42 DETAILS
HIGH: $8.00
LOW: $5.00
MEDIAN: $6.50
CONSENSUS: $6.42
UPSIDE: 59.31%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.5% below fair value
Current Price $4.03
Bear Case $2.94 27.1% downside ($2.94 - $4.03) / $4.03 = -27.1% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $4.40 9.3% upside ($4.40 - $4.03) / $4.03 = 9.3% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $5.87 45.7% upside ($5.87 - $4.03) / $4.03 = 45.7% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 7.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $6.42 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $4.40 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $6.42 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case