Hippo Holdings Inc. logo HIPO - Hippo Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $17.50
MEDIAN: $25.50
CONSENSUS: $28.38
DOWNSIDE: 2.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.6% below fair value
Current Price $29.20
Bear Case $22.62 22.5% downside ($22.62 - $29.20) / $29.20 = -22.5% ROTCE 12.3% → 0.98x TBV
Fair Value $32.32 10.7% upside ($32.32 - $29.20) / $29.20 = 10.7% ROTCE 16.5% → 1.46x TBV
Bull Case $42.01 43.9% upside ($42.01 - $29.20) / $29.20 = 43.9% ROTCE 18.9% → 1.76x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

16.5%
12.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (16.5%) vs. cost of equity (12.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.17x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.38 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.32 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly