Hims & Hers Health, Inc. logo HIMS - Hims & Hers Health, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.91 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $12.50
MEDIAN: $25.00
CONSENSUS: $26.91
DOWNSIDE: 13.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 362.6% above fair value
Current Price $31.12
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $31.12) / $31.12 = -100.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $6.73 78.4% downside ($6.73 - $31.12) / $31.12 = -78.4% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $31.12) / $31.12 = -100.0% 26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 0%

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.91 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.73 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 105% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.91 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions