Hill International, Inc. logo HIL - Hill International, Inc.

Inactive Ticker HIL is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 38.4% below fair value
Current Price $3.40
Bear Case $4.05 19.1% upside ($4.05 - $3.40) / $3.40 = 19.1% $0.37 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $5.52 62.4% upside ($5.52 - $3.40) / $3.40 = 62.4% $0.37 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $6.99 105.6% upside ($6.99 - $3.40) / $3.40 = 105.6% $0.37 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
0.37$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.37)

Implied Market Multiple 9.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.37 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $5.52 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 7.2x.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
⚠ Price-to-book value of 7.2x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing