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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 13.0% below fair value
Current Price $290.74
Bear Case $205.28 29.4% downside ($205.28 - $290.74) / $290.74 = -29.4% ROTCE 8.5% → 0.93x TBV
Fair Value $334.15 14.9% upside ($334.15 - $290.74) / $290.74 = 14.9% ROTCE 11.4% → 1.52x TBV
Bull Case $411.47 41.5% upside ($411.47 - $290.74) / $290.74 = 41.5% ROTCE 13.1% → 1.87x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.4%
8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.32x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.4% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.52x on $220.02 tangible book, implying $334.15 per share. DDM cross-check: $48.26.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $48.26 (86% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly