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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.7% below fair value
Current Price $284.87
Bear Case $200.51 29.6% downside ($200.51 - $284.87) / $284.87 = -29.6% ROTCE 8.5% → 0.91x TBV
Fair Value $326.38 14.6% upside ($326.38 - $284.87) / $284.87 = 14.6% ROTCE 11.4% → 1.48x TBV
Bull Case $401.90 41.1% upside ($401.90 - $284.87) / $284.87 = 41.1% ROTCE 13.1% → 1.83x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.4%
9.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.29x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.4% vs. 9.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.48x on $220.02 tangible book, implying $326.38 per share. DDM cross-check: $47.45.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $47.45 (85% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly