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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.8% below fair value
Current Price $299.64
Bear Case $206.45 31.1% downside ($206.45 - $299.64) / $299.64 = -31.1% ROTCE 8.5% → 0.94x TBV
Fair Value $336.05 12.2% upside ($336.05 - $299.64) / $299.64 = 12.2% ROTCE 11.4% → 1.53x TBV
Bull Case $413.81 38.1% upside ($413.81 - $299.64) / $299.64 = 38.1% ROTCE 13.1% → 1.88x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.4%
8.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.36x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.4% vs. 8.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.53x on $220.02 tangible book, implying $336.05 per share. DDM cross-check: $44.56.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $44.56 (87% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly