Hingham Institution for Savings logo HIFS - Hingham Institution for Savings

Price: -- --
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.3% below fair value
Current Price $288.33
Bear Case $197.45 31.5% downside ($197.45 - $288.33) / $288.33 = -31.5% ROTCE 8.5% → 0.90x TBV
Fair Value $321.40 11.5% upside ($321.40 - $288.33) / $288.33 = 11.5% ROTCE 11.4% → 1.46x TBV
Bull Case $395.77 37.3% upside ($395.77 - $288.33) / $288.33 = 37.3% ROTCE 13.1% → 1.80x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.4%
9.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.31x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.4% vs. 9.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.46x on $220.02 tangible book, implying $321.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $43.27.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $43.27 (87% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly