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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 87.7% below fair value
Current Price $1.89
Bear Case $12.31 551.4% upside ($12.31 - $1.89) / $1.89 = 551.4% $0.97 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $15.39 714.3% upside ($15.39 - $1.89) / $1.89 = 714.3% $0.97 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $18.47 877.1% upside ($18.47 - $1.89) / $1.89 = 877.1% $0.97 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.9x
0.97$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 1.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.97, the base-case value is $15.39 per share.

Warnings

Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1491 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples