Helen of Troy Limited logo HELE - Helen of Troy Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $26.50
CONSENSUS: $26.50
DOWNSIDE: 5.69%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 72.2% below fair value
Current Price $28.10
Bear Case $83.10 195.7% upside ($83.10 - $28.10) / $28.10 = 195.7% $7.03 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $100.91 259.1% upside ($100.91 - $28.10) / $28.10 = 259.1% $7.03 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $118.72 322.5% upside ($118.72 - $28.10) / $28.10 = 322.5% $7.03 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
7.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 4.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.91 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $26.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 351% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples