Helen of Troy Limited logo HELE - Helen of Troy Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.00
DOWNSIDE: 14.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 74.4% below fair value
Current Price $25.65
Bear Case $82.36 221.1% upside ($82.36 - $25.65) / $25.65 = 221.1% $7.03 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $100.01 289.9% upside ($100.01 - $25.65) / $25.65 = 289.9% $7.03 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $117.66 358.7% upside ($117.66 - $25.65) / $25.65 = 358.7% $7.03 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
7.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 3.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.01 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $22.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 443% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples