Helen of Troy Limited logo HELE - Helen of Troy Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $26.50
CONSENSUS: $26.50
DOWNSIDE: 6.33%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 75.2% below fair value
Current Price $28.29
Bear Case $93.91 232.0% upside ($93.91 - $28.29) / $28.29 = 232.0% $6.71 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $114.04 303.1% upside ($114.04 - $28.29) / $28.29 = 303.1% $6.71 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $134.16 374.2% upside ($134.16 - $28.29) / $28.29 = 374.2% $6.71 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
6.71$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 4.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.71, the base-case value is $114.04 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $26.50
Analyst Range $25.00 – $28.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 330%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $26.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 330% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples