HEICO Corporation logo HEI - HEICO Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 22
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $377.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $410.00
LOW: $350.00
MEDIAN: $377.50
CONSENSUS: $377.50
UPSIDE: 9.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 20.0% above fair value
Current Price $344.03
Bear Case $152.69 55.6% downside ($152.69 - $344.03) / $344.03 = -55.6% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $286.70 16.7% downside ($286.70 - $344.03) / $344.03 = -16.7% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $452.61 31.6% upside ($452.61 - $344.03) / $344.03 = 31.6% 25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

19.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 59.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 23.5% vs our 19.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $377.50 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $286.70 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $377.50 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions