Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. logo HE - Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 8
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $12.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $13.00
LOW: $12.50
MEDIAN: $12.75
CONSENSUS: $12.75
DOWNSIDE: 6.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.0% below fair value
Current Price $13.67
Bear Case $23.91 74.9% upside ($23.91 - $13.67) / $13.67 = 74.9% $1.94 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $27.33 100.0% upside ($27.33 - $13.67) / $13.67 = 100.0% $1.94 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $30.75 124.9% upside ($30.75 - $13.67) / $13.67 = 124.9% $1.94 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.94$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.75 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.33 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 173%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 201% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.75 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 143% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples