HE - Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$11.88
DETAILS
HIGH:
$12.00
LOW:
$11.75
MEDIAN:
$11.88
CONSENSUS:
$11.88
UPSIDE:
7.71%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
1.81$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.1x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.81, the base-case value is $28.96 per share. DDM cross-check: $26.16.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$11.88
Analyst Range
$11.75 – $12.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
144%
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 155%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 201% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.88 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 144% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples