Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. logo HE - Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 8
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $12.00
LOW: $11.75
MEDIAN: $11.88
CONSENSUS: $11.88
UPSIDE: 7.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 61.9% below fair value
Current Price $11.03
Bear Case $25.34 129.7% upside ($25.34 - $11.03) / $11.03 = 129.7% $1.81 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $28.96 162.6% upside ($28.96 - $11.03) / $11.03 = 162.6% $1.81 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $32.58 195.4% upside ($32.58 - $11.03) / $11.03 = 195.4% $1.81 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.81$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.81, the base-case value is $28.96 per share. DDM cross-check: $26.16.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $11.88
Analyst Range $11.75 – $12.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 144%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 155%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 201% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.88 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 144% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples