Hudson Technologies, Inc. logo HDSN - Hudson Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $9.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $9.00
LOW: $9.00
MEDIAN: $9.00
CONSENSUS: $9.00
UPSIDE: 77.87%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.0% below fair value
Current Price $5.06
Bear Case $8.79 73.7% upside ($8.79 - $5.06) / $5.06 = 73.7% $0.69 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $10.99 117.2% upside ($10.99 - $5.06) / $5.06 = 117.2% $0.69 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $13.19 160.7% upside ($13.19 - $5.06) / $5.06 = 160.7% $0.69 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.7x
0.69$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $9.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.99 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 86%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $9.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples