Hudson Technologies, Inc. logo HDSN - Hudson Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $8.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $8.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $8.00
CONSENSUS: $8.00
UPSIDE: 51.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.0% below fair value
Current Price $5.29
Bear Case $9.19 73.8% upside ($9.19 - $5.29) / $5.29 = 73.8% $0.69 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $11.49 117.2% upside ($11.49 - $5.29) / $5.29 = 117.2% $0.69 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $13.79 160.7% upside ($13.79 - $5.29) / $5.29 = 160.7% $0.69 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.7x
0.69$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.69, the base-case value is $11.49 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $8.00
Analyst Range $8.00 – $8.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 44%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 86%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 44% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples