HBNC - Horizon Bancorp, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$20.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$21.00
LOW:
$20.00
MEDIAN:
$20.50
CONSENSUS:
$20.50
UPSIDE:
11.78%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
-28.6%
8.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-28.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.79x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.50 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.70 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-28.6%) is below the minimum investors require (8.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $9.53 (59% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly