Hayward Holdings, Inc. logo HAYW - Hayward Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $19.00
LOW: $11.00
MEDIAN: $16.50
CONSENSUS: $15.75
UPSIDE: 13.72%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.1% below fair value
Current Price $13.85
Bear Case $14.47 4.4% upside ($14.47 - $13.85) / $13.85 = 4.4% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $16.50 19.1% upside ($16.50 - $13.85) / $13.85 = 19.1% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $18.25 31.8% upside ($18.25 - $13.85) / $13.85 = 31.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 12.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.75 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.50 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions