Hayward Holdings, Inc. logo HAYW - Hayward Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $19.00
LOW: $11.00
MEDIAN: $16.50
CONSENSUS: $15.75
UPSIDE: 5.70%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.7% below fair value
Current Price $14.90
Bear Case $14.47 2.9% downside ($14.47 - $14.90) / $14.90 = -2.9% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $16.50 10.8% upside ($16.50 - $14.90) / $14.90 = 10.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $18.25 22.5% upside ($18.25 - $14.90) / $14.90 = 22.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 13.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 3.3% vs our 5.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.75 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.50 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions