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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 78.5% above fair value
Current Price $125.70
Bear Case $48.14 61.7% downside ($48.14 - $125.70) / $125.70 = -61.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $70.41 44.0% downside ($70.41 - $125.70) / $125.70 = -44.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $93.41 25.7% downside ($93.41 - $125.70) / $125.70 = -25.7% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

12.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 43.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $70.41 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from GBP into USD using GBPUSD at 1.3476 USD per GBP.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions